Misunderstood
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 80
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 15y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 03/10/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/10/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 06/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 65% | +0.28 |