9
Native Honey
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 72
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 15y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hamilton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 26/04/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/05/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 12/06/2026 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |