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5

Passing Thought

3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 85

Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much improved form on seasonal/handicap debut when doubling her tally at Wetherby (7f) in April. Met trouble in running when mid-field in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot (1m), so she could fare better back down in trip/grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 21/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f12y Gd 12821/0754 @ Goodwood 22/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f Goo 12822/0844 @ Hamilton 22/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f6y Sft 12822/0941 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 80 · 7f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 80 par25/101OR 804 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 80 par26/044OR 802 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 30 · OR 85 · 1m GF 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 85 par19/062OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Royal Ascot214th12th+2
2026-04-26Wetherby41st1st0
2025-10-25Newbury17th3rd+3
2025-09-22Hamilton41st1st0
2025-08-22Goodwood42nd2nd0
2025-07-21Windsor57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0722/0822/0925/1026/0419/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/20257th4/179%40%-0.39
22/08/20252nd16/116%88%+0.72
22/09/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
25/10/20257th12/137%14%-0.23
26/04/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
19/06/202614th28/10%55%+0.55