10
Zarvali
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 78
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 15y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fairyhouse | BHA72 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-08-28 | Navan | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 16/08/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 61% | -0.07 |
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 74% | +0.74 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |