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4

Big Fun

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 80

Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Royal Handicap · 5f 1y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed the odds in 4-runner C&D maiden last summer. Made the frame on handicap/seasonal debut at Thirsk in April, before seventh of 12 at the same course the following month. Eased 2 lb in the weights but still looks to have something to find.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Pontefract 23/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS23/0522 @ Hamilton 15/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 6f6y GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/0625 @ Musselburgh 01/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 5f1y Gd 1331/0752 @ Newbury 19/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 78 · 5f34y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 78 par19/072OR 783 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 82 par18/043OR 824 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 82 par31/054OR 82projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-31Thirsk47th7th0
2026-04-18Thirsk34th3rd+1
2025-07-19Newbury27th5th+2
2025-07-01Musselburgh51st2nd−1
2025-06-15Hamilton22nd0th+2
2025-05-23Pontefract22nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0515/061/0719/0718/0431/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20252nd20/10%89%+0.89
15/06/20252nd4/797%75%-0.22
01/07/20251st1/699%100%+0.01
19/07/20257th28/10%67%+0.67
18/04/20264th9/153%77%+0.24
31/05/20267th5/174%45%-0.28