6
Ecclefechan
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 65
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Royal Handicap · 5f 1y
#6
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yarmouth | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ripon | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength22%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 57% | -0.35 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |