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Jer Batt

6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 82

Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Royal Handicap · 5f 1y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run is mounting up, but after 3 months off he shaped promisingly when third of 5 in handicap over this C&D 7 days ago (½ length behind Montezuma in second). Lurks on a dangerous mark given another try in cheekpieces.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Yarmouth 24/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 90 · 5f42y Sft 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 90 par24/073OR 902 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 89 · 5f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 89 par3 @ Doncaster 14/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 88 · 5f3y Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 88 par14/093OR 883 @ Chester 20/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 88 · 5f15y Hvy 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 88 par3 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 88 · 5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 88 par17/103OR 882 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 87 · 5f3y Hvy 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 87 par2 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 85 · 5f1y Sft 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 85 par4/042OR 854 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 84 · 5f1y Goo 134 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 82 · 5f1y Gd 136 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 82 par31/074OR 82projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Musselburgh43rd3rd0
2026-04-26Musselburgh43rd3rd0
2026-04-04Musselburgh27th5th+2
2025-10-25Doncaster27th5th+2
2025-10-17Haydock33rd2nd+1
2025-09-20Chester33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0720/094/0431/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20253rd7/282%83%+0.02
06/09/20253rd5/287%75%-0.12
14/09/20253rd2/189%83%-0.06
20/09/20253rd13/891%67%-0.25
17/10/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
25/10/20257th7/282%45%-0.36
04/04/20267th7/282%54%-0.28
26/04/20263rd4/179%82%+0.03
31/07/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36