3
Montezuma
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 78
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Royal Handicap · 5f 1y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 30/09/2025 | 6th | 16/5 | 83% | 58% | -0.25 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 17/05/2026 | 13th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |