2
Tiva
4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 79
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Royal Handicap · 5f 1y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Beverley | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ripon | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 19/09/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/5 | 81% | 80% | -0.01 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |