5
Alnayef
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 65
Musselburgh · Brodie Handicap · 1m 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Hamilton | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 19/09/2025 | 13th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 30% | -0.49 |
| 17/01/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |