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7

Much

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 69

Musselburgh · Brodie Handicap · 1m 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Never landed a blow in his qualifying runs, but having been gelded he took a step forward sent handicapping when 1½ lengths second of 7 to Roc de Fer at Wolverhampton (1½m) 7 days ago. Clear of the rest last time and he's open to further progress.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength80%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS17/0423 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/0533 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f201y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/0635 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 69 · 1m4f51y Std 130 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 69 par31/075OR 69projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-06-09Salisbury34th2nd+2
2026-05-15Newbury37th5th+2
2026-04-17Newbury28th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0415/059/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20268th40/10%22%+0.22
15/05/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
09/06/20264th28/10%67%+0.67
31/07/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07