Roc De Fer
3yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 68
Musselburgh · Brodie Handicap · 1m 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
1/4
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-11 | Chelmsford City | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-26 | Southwell | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |