2
Simple Star
8yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 68
Musselburgh · Brodie Handicap · 1m 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength58%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Musselburgh | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kelso | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Musselburgh | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 13/09/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 12/04/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |