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4

Tommy's Promise

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 66

Musselburgh · Brodie Handicap · 1m 5f

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a 4-timer with success over 1¼m in January. Shaped as if still in good form next 2 outings, before not convincing on his first try over 1½m when ninth of 15 at the same course in April. Off since ahead of return to turf.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 25/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 45 · 1m142y Std 142 · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 45 par25/116OR 456 @ Lingfield 02/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 45 · 1m2f Std 119 · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 45 · 1m2f Std 127 · beat its mark04/12/2025 · OR 45 par4/126OR 456 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 52 · 1m2f Std 132 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 22/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 52 · 1m2f Std 130 · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 52 par22/126OR 525 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 1m2f Std 130 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Lingfield 29/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 66 · 1m2f Std 132 · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 66 par29/015OR 665 @ Lingfield 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m2f Std 127 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 67 · 1m4f Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 67 par3/044OR 67projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-03Lingfield49th8th+1
2026-02-28Lingfield55th5th0
2026-01-29Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-01-17Lingfield51st1st0
2025-12-22Lingfield61st2nd−1
2025-12-15Lingfield61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1115/1229/013/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength19%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/11/20256th12/137%58%+0.21
02/12/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
04/12/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
15/12/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
22/12/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
17/01/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
29/01/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
28/02/20265th7/282%43%-0.39
03/04/20269th12/137%43%+0.06