6
Willow Wood
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 71
Musselburgh · Brodie Handicap · 1m 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Nottingham | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-05 | Haydock | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/11/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |