5
Chloe's Courage
4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 51
Musselburgh · Muirhall Energy Breath Of Fresh Energy Handicap · 7f 15y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Southwell | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Lingfield | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 02/12/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 04/12/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 17/12/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 22/12/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 12/01/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 22/01/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |