IvyArcIvyArc
1

Filey Beach

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 59

Musselburgh · Muirhall Energy Breath Of Fresh Energy Handicap · 7f 15y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed back-to-back handicaps at Catterick in May and has made the frame twice on all-weather since (has a lower mark on that surface), fourth of 13 in minor event at Newcastle 13 days ago. Cheekpieces reached for back on turf.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 17/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 135 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 55 par17/106OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 03/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 55 · 7f36y Std 135 · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 55 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 55 par10/046OR 556 @ Musselburgh 29/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 55 · 7f15y Goo 135 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 54 · 7f6y Gd 129 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 54 par11/056OR 546 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 54 · 7f6y Goo 129 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par2/066OR 496 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 59 · 7f6y GF 134 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 49 · 7f14y Sta 135 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 49 par25/076OR 49projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Newcastle64th4th0
2026-07-08Catterick67th7th0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-05-21Catterick61st1st0
2026-05-11Catterick61st1st0
2026-04-29Musselburgh64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1029/042/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength70%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/202513th9/153%8%-0.45
03/11/202512th12/137%0%-0.37
10/04/20268th16/116%46%+0.30
29/04/20264th6/492%70%-0.22
11/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
21/05/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
02/06/20263rd10/1195%78%-0.17
08/07/20267th3/184%25%-0.59
25/07/20264th4/179%75%-0.04