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Keep Me Stable

6yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 58

Musselburgh · Muirhall Energy Breath Of Fresh Energy Handicap · 7f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a course hat-trick last summer. Has struggled for form in 3 starts this season, but she's now back down below her last winning mark so a revival isn't ruled out with yard going well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 20/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 53 · 7f14y Sta 131 · beat its mark20/03/2025 · OR 53 par20/036OR 536 @ Musselburgh 02/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 54 · 7f15y Goo 134 · beat its mark02/05/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Musselburgh 07/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 1m2y Gd 134 · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 54 par7/066OR 546 @ Musselburgh 01/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 57 · 7f15y Gd 133 · beat its mark01/07/2025 · OR 57 par5 @ Musselburgh 22/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 7f15y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/07/2025 · OR 61 par22/075OR 616 @ Ayr 11/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 65 · 7f50y Goo 142 · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 63 · 1m2y Gd 137 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 63 par22/066OR 635 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 62 · 7f50y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 61 par20/075OR 61projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Ayr58th7th+1
2026-07-06Ayr511th10th+1
2026-06-22Musselburgh67th7th0
2025-08-11Ayr63rd3rd0
2025-07-22Musselburgh51st0th+1
2025-07-01Musselburgh61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/031/0722/0620/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength4%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20252nd11/271%75%+0.04
02/05/20254th4/179%57%-0.22
07/06/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
01/07/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
22/07/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
11/08/20253rd3/184%78%-0.06
22/06/20267th18/15%0%-0.05
06/07/202611th66/10%0%0.00
20/07/20268th66/10%13%+0.13