3
Maui Breeze
4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 53
Musselburgh · Muirhall Energy Breath Of Fresh Energy Handicap · 7f 15y
#6
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 10/01/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 20/01/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/06/2026 | 16th | 25/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |