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6

Misemerald

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 46

Musselburgh · Muirhall Energy Breath Of Fresh Energy Handicap · 7f 15y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Arrives in good form, conceding first run when beaten only a head by Monhammer in 7-runner handicap over this C&D 7 days ago. Has dropped a long way in the weights and could be set to get back to winning ways.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 30/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 54 · 1m5y Std 126 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 54 par30/096OR 545 @ Catterick 28/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 52 · 7f6y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 52 par5 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 51 · 1m GS 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 51 par29/035OR 516 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 49 · 1m6y Std 129 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 47 · 1m208y Gd 122 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 47 par21/056OR 476 @ Catterick 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 45 · 7f6y GF 126 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 46 · 7f173y Goo 140 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 46 par4/076OR 466 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 45 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 46 · 7f15y Gd 126 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 46 par31/076OR 46projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Musselburgh62nd2nd0
2026-07-16Thirsk64th4th0
2026-07-04Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-06-22Catterick62nd2nd0
2026-05-21Musselburgh66th6th0
2026-04-20Newcastle66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0920/044/0731/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20256th14/126%29%+0.02
28/10/202510th22/10%10%+0.10
29/03/202614th25/10%38%+0.38
20/04/20266th20/10%62%+0.62
21/05/20266th7/163%17%-0.46
22/06/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25
04/07/20263rd17/255%75%+0.20
16/07/20264th10/147%63%+0.15
31/07/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01