4
Monhammer
8yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 48
Musselburgh · Muirhall Energy Breath Of Fresh Energy Handicap · 7f 15y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Musselburgh | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength86%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 06/06/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 10% | +0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |