10
Akabusi
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 72
Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 28/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 15/06/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 17/07/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |