3
Aspull
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75
Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Chepstow | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Kempton | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Salisbury | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 30/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 82% | -0.14 |
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 05/09/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 23/05/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 10% | -0.51 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |