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6

Fenlander

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74

Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Keen-going sort who took 17 runs to get off the mark but on the upgrade all of a sudden having completed a hat-trick at Nottingham in June. Went close to landing a 4-timer when good ¾-length third to Spring Bloom over C&D 3 weeks ago and 6 lb better off with winner here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 03/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 61 · 6f16y Std 131 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 61 par3/116OR 616 @ Southwell 21/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 61 · 6f16y Std 131 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 6f16y Std 130 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 60 par5/046OR 605 @ Yarmouth 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 61 · 6f3y GF 126 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 61 par9/055OR 615 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 63 par13/065OR 635 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 6f18y Goo 135 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 74 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 74 par18/074OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Newmarket43rd3rd0
2026-06-25Nottingham51st2nd−1
2026-06-13Leicester51st2nd−1
2026-05-25Leicester51st2nd−1
2026-05-09Leicester56th7th−1
2026-04-21Yarmouth53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1121/0413/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/11/20252nd9/276%91%+0.15
21/11/20253rd10/382%83%+0.01
05/04/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
21/04/20263rd13/891%60%-0.31
09/05/20266th18/581%38%-0.44
25/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
25/06/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
18/07/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08