7
Fifty Nifty
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72
Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Yarmouth | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/10/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 03/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 19/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 27/07/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |