5
Fiscal Policy
7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74
Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 4 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength23%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 87% | +0.04 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 17th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |