1
Havana Blue
6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80
Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Newcastle | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 19th | 33/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 05/09/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 05/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 94% | +0.31 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |