2
Lil Brother
3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 82
Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | York | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Haydock | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Haydock | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 19/06/2025 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 10/08/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 10/10/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 01/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |