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4

Spring Bloom

9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 71

Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Arrives on the back of 2 narrow wins over C&D in recent weeks but 4 lb penalty probably enough to prevent a hat-trick.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark04/12/2025 · OR 70 par4/125OR 705 @ Southwell 12/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 70 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Leicester 13/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 69 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 69 par13/045OR 693 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 68 · 6f Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Goodwood 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 68 par2/055OR 685 @ Newbury 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 5f34y GF 135 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 69 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 69 par19/065OR 694 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 6f GF 129 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Newmarket 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 71 · 6f GF 138 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 71 par31/075OR 71projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Newmarket51st2nd−1
2026-07-18Newmarket41st1st0
2026-06-19Newmarket52nd3rd−1
2026-06-01Newbury53rd4th−1
2026-05-02Goodwood52nd3rd−1
2026-05-01Goodwood36th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/121/0519/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/12/20253rd12/137%75%+0.38
12/12/20257th5/174%50%-0.24
13/04/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
01/05/20266th22/10%38%+0.38
02/05/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
01/06/20263rd6/492%67%-0.25
19/06/20262nd15/261%93%+0.33
18/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
31/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09