The Caltonian
7yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69
Newmarket · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Newcastle | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Newcastle | 2 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 09/12/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 8% | -0.63 |
| 13/04/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 06/07/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |