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2

Areti

3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 75

Newmarket · Rekorderlig Fillies' Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/6

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally gained reward for her consistency when getting off the mark in 7-runner maiden at Redcar (7f, good, 5/6) by 1¾ lengths from Vanilla Skies 9 days ago. Resumes handicapping from same mark as when last seen in this type of race and can go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS10/1024 @ Newmarket 01/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 7f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Kempton 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f Sta 12810/1254 @ Southwell 01/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 77 · 6f213y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 77 par9/064OR 774 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 75 · 1m13y Std 135 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 75 par5/075OR 755 @ Newbury 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m GF 135 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Redcar 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 75 par29/074OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Redcar41st0th+1
2026-07-17Newbury54th4th0
2026-07-05Southwell54th4th0
2026-06-25Newmarket42nd1st+1
2026-06-09Salisbury45th4th+1
2026-01-01Southwell42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/101/015/0729/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20253rd11/142%80%+0.38
01/11/20256th7/491%50%-0.41
10/12/20252nd3/184%86%+0.02
01/01/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
09/06/20265th7/163%67%+0.04
25/06/20262nd9/488%75%-0.13
05/07/20264th10/147%77%+0.30
17/07/20264th8/158%67%+0.09
29/07/20261st5/696%100%+0.04