1
Hilltop
5yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 75
Newmarket · Rekorderlig Fillies' Handicap · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 70% | -0.21 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 15/12/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |