5
Lexington Express
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72
Newmarket · Rekorderlig Fillies' Handicap · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-24 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength40%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 03/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 04/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 24/03/2026 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/5 | 83% | 75% | -0.08 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |