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3

Rogue Citation

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72

Newmarket · Rekorderlig Fillies' Handicap · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced filly who won a novice at Southwell last October. Stepped up on handicap debut effort in a first-time tongue strap with an improved third at Catterick (7f, firm, 10/1) last month, despite not keeping straight.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 20/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f182y GF 12820/0855 @ Southwell 16/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f16y Std 12816/1055 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 128 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 73 par15/045OR 735 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 7f6y GF 133 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 72 par8/075OR 72projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-08Catterick53rd3rd0
2026-04-15Southwell56th6th0
2025-10-16Southwell51st1st0
2025-08-20Carlisle53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0816/1015/048/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/20253rd11/271%67%-0.04
16/10/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
15/04/20266th10/382%17%-0.66
08/07/20263rd10/147%60%+0.13