6

Show Me Gold

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 67

Newmarket · Rekorderlig Fillies' Handicap · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened her account on handicap debut at Kempton in June but failed to back that up when down the field on the tapeta at Wolverhampton last month. The latter race is working out quite well but she needs to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 30/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f36y Std 12430/1254 @ Kempton 28/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f 120 · HIGHER CLASS28/0144 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 7f135y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS6/0645 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 63 · 7f Sta 126 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 63 par29/065OR 635 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 67 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 67 par17/075OR 67projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Wolverhampton59th9th0
2026-06-29Kempton51st1st0
2026-06-06Lingfield44th3rd+1
2026-01-28Kempton42nd1st+1
2025-12-30Wolverhampton52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1228/016/0629/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength60%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/12/20252nd9/153%80%+0.27
28/01/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
06/06/20264th17/255%73%+0.17
29/06/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
17/07/20269th10/147%20%-0.27