Lucky Hero
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 75
Newmarket · Aspall Handicap · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Redcar | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 3. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 12/10/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 17th | 10/1 | 47% | 16% | -0.32 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |