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Shimmering Sands

7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 75

Newmarket · Aspall Handicap · 1m 2f

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has turned over a new leaf since returning, ending a long losing run at Pontefract (1¼m) in June before following up in emphatic fashion over the same C&D from a 4 lb higher mark later in the month. Up another 8 lb now though as he bids to land the hat-trick against a pair less than half his age.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 21/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m2f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2025 · OR 75 par21/054OR 754 @ York 13/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 73 · 1m2f56y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Beverley 24/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 71 · 1m1f207y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2025 · OR 71 par24/064OR 715 @ Doncaster 16/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 69 · 1m2f43y Goo 129 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 69 par4 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m2f42y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 68 par4/104OR 685 @ Southwell 30/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 66 · 1m14y Std 137 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 66 par6 @ Newcastle 26/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m2f42y Std 139 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 64 par26/116OR 646 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 63 · 1m2f5y Goo 133 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 1m2f5y Goo 155 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 67 par29/065OR 67projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-29Pontefract51st1st0
2026-06-08Pontefract61st2nd−1
2025-11-26Newcastle64th5th−1
2025-10-30Southwell53rd3rd0
2025-10-04Newcastle45th4th+1
2025-08-16Doncaster54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0516/0826/1129/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 3
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20256th17/255%38%-0.18
13/06/202510th11/142%53%+0.11
24/06/20257th3/184%14%-0.70
16/08/20254th11/142%57%+0.15
04/10/20255th16/116%64%+0.48
30/10/20253rd16/583%71%-0.12
26/11/20254th85/4089%57%-0.32
08/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
29/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11