Brother Paul

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 72

Penn National · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength28%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-26	Penn National	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-06-10	Penn National	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-05-23	Penn National	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6
2026-04-16	Penn National	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6
2026-04-08	Penn National	?	4th	3rd	+1	6.6
2026-03-19	Penn National	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 5

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength8%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/02/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	80%	+0.64
19/03/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	60%	-0.22
08/04/2026	4th	13/2	66%	63%	-0.03
16/04/2026	3rd	6/5	94%	33%	-0.60
23/05/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	50%	-0.21
10/06/2026	1st	11/8	93%	100%	+0.07
26/06/2026	6th	8/1	58%	17%	-0.41