5
Flash Of Chaos
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 83
Penn National · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 21/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 17/02/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |