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3

Good Man Dan

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 85

Penn National · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 12227/09C9C6 @ Laurel Park 25/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 56 par25/10C6OR 56C9 @ Laurel Park 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 71 · 6f 118 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 71 par15/05C9OR 71C6 @ Laurel Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 62 · 1m110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 62 par12/06C6OR 62C5 @ Penn National 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 74 · 1m70y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 74 par8/07C5OR 74C5 @ Penn National 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 78 par25/07C5OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Penn National?3rd1st+2
2026-07-08Penn National?2nd0th+2
2026-06-12Laurel Park?1st0th+1
2026-05-15Laurel Park?5th7th−2
2025-10-25Laurel Park?4th3rd+1
2025-09-27Laurel Park?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0925/1015/0512/068/0725/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20252nd7/163%86%+0.23
25/10/20254th20/10%63%+0.63
15/05/20265th8/158%43%-0.15
12/06/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
08/07/20262nd11/1094%67%-0.28
25/07/20263rd10/382%67%-0.16