4
Ice Shot
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Penn National · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |