2
Alyvia Mavis
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 72
Penn National · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2024 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 30/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 11/07/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 01/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |