3
Half A Deck
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 74
Penn National · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-10-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |