5
Kelly's Into Luck
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 53
Penn National · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |