3
Chubblesome
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 42
Penn National · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |