3
Bermuda Triangle
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 74
Penn National · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 01/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 1/3 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 2/13 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |