4
Chain Reaction
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Penn National · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |