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6

Ellie's Boyfriend

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78

Penn National · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Penn National 27/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 83 · 6f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2025 · OR 83 par27/06C7OR 83C7 @ Penn National 31/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 91 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 91 parC5 @ Penn National 14/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 89 par14/08C5OR 89C7 @ Charles Town 28/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 94 · 4f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 94 parC7 @ Penn National 30/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 88 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 88 par30/10C7OR 88C8 @ Penn National 04/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Penn National 23/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark23/04/2026 · OR 82 par23/04C8OR 82C8 @ Penn National 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 6f 122 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 75 parC0 @ Penn National 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f Fas 1242/07C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Penn National?3rd3rd0
2026-06-11Penn National?2nd2nd0
2026-04-23Penn National?6th6th0
2026-04-04Penn National?2nd2nd0
2025-10-30Penn National?2nd1st+1
2025-09-28Charles Town?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0628/0923/042/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength49%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/20252nd5/696%75%-0.21
31/07/20252nd9/488%88%-0.01
14/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
28/09/20258th6/168%0%-0.68
30/10/20252nd2/189%75%-0.14
04/04/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
23/04/20266th9/276%0%-0.76
11/06/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
02/07/20263rd5/174%67%-0.07