One Improbable
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 73
Penn National · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-08 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-05 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-03-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2024 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 19/12/2024 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 16/01/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 07/02/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 06/03/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 05/06/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |