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2

Confiscated

5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 93

Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Delaware Park 15/08/2024 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 96 · 6f Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2024 · OR 96 par15/08C5OR 96C5 @ Monmouth Park 27/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 89 · 5f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2025 · OR 89 parC5 @ Penn National 01/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 94 · 5f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 94 par1/08C5OR 94C5 @ Penn National 05/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 85 parC7 @ Penn National 14/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 78 par14/11C7OR 78C7 @ Penn National 20/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 6f Slo 122 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 79 parC7 @ Penn National 20/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 122 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 84 par20/03C7OR 84C5 @ Penn National 17/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Penn National 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 93 · 6f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 93 par21/05C5OR 93projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-21Penn National?1st0th+1
2026-04-17Penn National?2nd1st+1
2026-03-20Penn National?1st2nd−1
2026-02-20Penn National?1st2nd−1
2025-11-14Penn National?2nd3rd−1
2025-09-05Penn National?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/085/0920/0321/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20246th5/174%0%-0.74
27/06/20257th9/153%14%-0.38
01/08/20256th5/174%17%-0.57
05/09/20256th9/153%17%-0.36
14/11/20252nd11/486%83%-0.02
20/02/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
20/03/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
17/04/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
21/05/20261st11/893%100%+0.07